dengxiaofeng-cycle-industry

---
name: dengxiaofeng-cycle-industry
description: "Use when evaluating stocks through Deng Xiaofeng's cycle-and-industry lens: deep industry research, cycle position awareness, supply-demand dynamics, and buying leaders at cycle bottoms."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry

Use this skill to apply Deng Xiaofeng / 邓晓峰-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- cycle industry analysis
- whether an industry is at cycle bottom or top
- deep industry research thesis
- Deng Xiaofeng-style value with cycle awareness

Trigger phrases include `邓晓峰`, `Deng Xiaofeng`, `cycle industry`, `行业周期`, `supply demand cycle`, `周期底部`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic chatter with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset, sector, market, or macro context
- Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested

## Process

1. Map the industry cycle: bottom, recovery, peak, downturn.
2. Analyze supply-demand dynamics and capacity additions.
3. Identify the industry leader with cost/scale advantage.
4. Buy at cycle bottom when price reflects pessimism; reduce at cycle top.

## Output Format

```md
# Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Buy Cycle Bottom / Watch / Cycle Still Falling / At Cycle Top / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.

## Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.