arthur-hayes-liquidity

---
name: arthur-hayes-liquidity
description: "Use when evaluating crypto markets through an Arthur Hayes-style liquidity lens: dollar liquidity, funding, risk appetite, cycle psychology, and macro-driven crypto positioning."
invest: ./invest.md
---

# Arthur Hayes Liquidity

Use this skill to apply Arthur Hayes-style judgment.

## When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

- crypto macro regime
- liquidity-driven BTC/ETH risk appetite
- funding/leverage cycle
- Hayes-style crypto essay thesis

Trigger phrases include `Arthur Hayes`, `CryptoHayes`, `dollar liquidity`, `crypto funding`, `risk-on crypto`, `BitMEX`.

## Do Not Use When

- Another skill fits better.
- Critical data for this model is missing.
- The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
- The request is generic hype with no decision.

## Inputs Needed

- Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
- Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
- Time horizon and risk constraints
- Portfolio context if sizing is requested

## Process

1. Map dollar liquidity and policy backdrop.
2. Check crypto leverage/funding and risk appetite.
3. Decide risk-on, neutral, or risk-off posture.
4. Express via BTC/ETH/beta with explicit invalidation.

## Output Format

```md
# Arthur Hayes Liquidity View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Risk-On / Neutral / Risk-Off / Probe / Reduce

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data
```

## Guardrails

- Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
- Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
- Define invalidation before sizing.
- Not financial advice.

## Questflow Use

Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.