Deliberating Under Ambiguity

Why this skill exists

Models commit to a path mid-flight without pausing to mentally simulate where it leads. Klein's recognition-primed decision-making has two halves: recognize the situation type, then mentally simulate the typical response before acting. Recognition is operationalized in skills (format reference: recognition-rubric-format.md, shipped with writing-skills-from-learning). This skill operationalizes the simulation half — by forking a read-only subagent that runs vision + premortem + wargame and returns structured advisory notes the parent uses to commit (or not).

The skill is the answer to: the model "knows what to do" but should pause and check; how do we make pausing not optional?

When to use

Both conditions must hold:

1. The situation is observably ambiguous by at least one of:
   • Rubric route (when a skill with a recognition rubric is active): at least two of the rubric's "cues that indicate this situation" are observably present, and one of its "atypical / surprising versions" applies OR multiple distinct response shapes from the rubric could plausibly fit. Don't ask "did the rubric fire?"; ask "which specific cues do I observe in the message / file / session state right now?" — count cues, identify which version of the situation type, count fitting responses.
   • Interpretation route: multiple legitimate readings of your human partner's request are live, and the choice between them changes what you'd produce.
   • Response-shape route: you can name more than one materially different way to proceed, and you're picking one without being able to say why it beats the others.
2. The proposed action is non-trivial by at least one of:
   • Blast radius: affects shared state outside this session — git push, PR merge, deploy, message to another person, settings change another agent will see.
   • Reversibility: hard or impossible to undo — rm -rf, force-push, destructive migration.
   • Branching: the work ahead branches into substantially different paths depending on early choices — a wrong early choice forfeits substantial work.
   • Goal ambiguity: your human partner's request admits multiple legitimate interpretations and the choice between them is consequential.

The trigger conditions are checks to run, not a feeling to consult. Each asks about something observable in the session — cues present, readings live, response shapes nameable, blast radius, reversibility. When both conditions hold, fork. Do not assess whether your own reasoning seems sufficient — that assessment is exactly what's unreliable under these conditions. If you've already started reasoning toward an answer when you notice the trigger, fork anyway — your reasoning so far is Path A, and the fork's job is to enumerate Paths B and C you haven't considered. Rapid convergence of your own reasoning is not a signal you can skip the fork; it is the strongest signal that the fork is needed (premature convergence is the failure mode RPD literature documents in non-expert decision-making).

When NOT to use

• Trivial actions (single file edits, read operations, low-stakes choices).
• Recognized-and-unambiguous situations (typical case for a typical skill — just act).
• Mid-deliberation: do not recursively fork from inside a fork. If the fork surfaces a sub-decision, return it to the parent.

Recognition rubric (meta — for the trigger)

Cues that indicate this is a fork-worthy decision point

• The proposed next action will produce visible side effects to a person or shared system.
• The work ahead branches into substantially different paths depending on early choices.
• The recognition rubric in the active skill flagged ambiguity.
• Multiple legitimate interpretations of your human partner's intent are live.
• Reversibility is hard (git force-push, migration, deletion, send-message).

Atypical / surprising versions

• A short single command that can be reversed but with significant cost (e.g., a force-push to a feature branch that another collaborator may have pulled).
• An affirmative interaction ("yes, do that") where your human partner thinks they are unambiguous but the action could still be disambiguated several ways.

Common novice errors

• Treating a confident statement from your human partner as elimination of ambiguity. (Their confidence ≠ situation clarity.)
• Treating the absence of pushback as approval. Your human partner may not see the alternative paths the agent is considering.
• Skipping the fork because "I already know what to do" — that thought is itself a rationalization and is in the table below.

Expert shortcuts

• Commit immediately when the action is fully reversible AND the cost of being wrong is local (under one session).
• Commit immediately when the recognition rubric returned an unambiguous match (only one situation-type fired).

How to dispatch the fork

Under Claude Code, use the Agent tool with subagent_type=Explore (it already excludes Edit/Write/NotebookEdit, which is exactly the read-only constraint we want). Fall back to general-purpose only when the deliberation needs additional tools (e.g., calling other skills); in that case, the prompt-level constraint below is the read-only enforcement.

If your harness has no subagent mechanism, run the deliberation inline: announce you are entering read-only deliberation, execute the PROCEDURE section of the template below yourself — no state-changing action of any kind until it completes — and produce the same six-section advisory document before deciding. The fork is preferred because fresh context forces genuine enumeration of Paths B and C; the inline form keeps the structure when forking isn't available. Dispatch:

Agent({
  description: "Deliberation: <one-line situation>",
  subagent_type: "Explore",
  prompt: <the deliberation prompt template below>,
})

Deliberation prompt template:

You are a deliberation subagent dispatched to evaluate a decision the parent
session is about to make.

CONSTRAINTS:
- READ ONLY. Do not Edit, Write, NotebookEdit, run state-changing Bash, or invoke
  slipbox link/unlink/new/rename. Do not push, commit, rebase, or merge.
- Scope-bound: run the PROCEDURE below once and return. Do not iterate,
  broaden the survey, or re-run premortems.
- Advisory only: the parent retains the decision.

SITUATION:
<paste the parent's recent message context, the proposed action, and any
artifacts the parent points at (zettel slugs, source notes, episodic exchanges)>

PROCEDURE:
1. Survey existing knowledge:
   - Skills loaded in your context (look at descriptions for relevance).
   - Zettels (if the project keeps a slip-box): slipbox search
     "<situation cues, not topic>" and follow links from hub matches.
   - Episodic (if a conversation-history search tool is installed): search
     with situation cues — top 3–5 prior exchanges that look like this one.
   - Skip either source that isn't available; don't stall on it.
2. Name candidate paths:
   - Path A: <the parent's proposal>
   - Path B: at least one alternative
   - Path C: optional, if the situation suggests it
3. Vision + premortem on Path A:
   - Vision: 3–5 sentences describing what success looks like 24 hours and 1
     week after committing.
   - Premortem: assume Path A failed. Write the specific failure modes — not
     "could go wrong" but "the specific thing that broke was X because Y."
   - For each failure mode, name the earliest observable signal that would
     indicate this failure mode is materializing.
4. If Path A's premortem surfaces a show-stopper, vision+premortem on Path B.
   Repeat for Path C if needed.
5. Wargame the top 3 failure modes:
   - For each: what's the recovery move if the early signal fires?
   - Is there a way to commit to a path that preserves the recovery move's
     option value?
6. Return a single markdown document with:
   ## Recommended action
   ## Why this and not the alternatives
   ## Watch for
   ## If [condition], reverse course
   ## What I'm uncertain about

If one pass through the procedure doesn't produce a confident recommendation,
return "I can't reach a confident recommendation; here's what I learned" plus
the partial findings. The parent will escalate to your human partner.

What to do with the deliberation output

The parent reads the document and:

1. Acts on the recommendation, recording the watch-for signals in working memory or a scratch note.
2. Asks your human partner to disambiguate if the deliberation surfaced a better question to ask before deciding.
3. Forks again with refined input if the deliberation revealed a sub-decision to deliberate first.

The fork's recommendation is advisory. The parent retains the decision.

Rationalization table