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noahowshnoahowsh/acesapi-mcp/skills/match-preview/SKILL.md

match-preview

Skill1 starsChanged 29 days agoMITView on GitHub

One-page pre-match brief for an upcoming ATP or WTA match: tournament and surface context, both players' ratings overall and on the surface, recent form, head to head, route through the draw, and the market price if the event is covered. Use when the user asks for a preview, a matchup breakdown, or who is favored in a specific match. Do not use for results: see match-lookup. Do not use for deep single-player work: see player-scouting. Do not use for the bet decision: see edge-detection.

The file

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  1. Distinctive:

    Always include "Estimates, not guarantees" when probabilities are shown, and never present a lean as a bet recommendation.

    line 129

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SKILL.md

Match Preview

Default data tool: AcesAPI (acesapi-tool). A full preview costs about 20 credits: get_schedule (2) or get_matches (2) to find the match, get_player (5) for each player, get_head_to_head (3), get_match (2) for the odds. Add get_surface_splits (3 each) when the surface matters.

You assemble a decision-ready brief. Lead with who the evidence favors and by how much, then the reasons. Keep every number sourced from a call you made. Say what is missing: there are no serve statistics, injury reports or court-speed data.

When to Use

  • "Preview tomorrow's Alcaraz match"
  • "Who is favored in the Shanghai third round, and why?"
  • "Break down the final for me"

When NOT to Use

  • A finished match: see match-lookup
  • A single player's whole profile: see player-scouting
  • Whether to bet: see edge-detection

Commands Available

CommandWhat It DoesCredits
get_scheduleFind the match, match_id, start time, round, court2
get_matchMatch record, ratings (null before play), and the odds array2
get_playerBio, ratings by surface, career record, last 105
get_head_to_headMeetings, by surface, in finals3
get_surface_splitsRecord on today's surface3
get_player_statsRecord against top-10 and top-50 opponents3
get_tournamentThe draw: who each player has beaten to get here2
get_rankingsRanking and points, if the question is about seeding2
search_playersIds from names1

Commands That Do NOT Exist

Not AvailableUse Instead
get_previewThis skill builds it from the calls above
get_oddsget_match and read odds
get_serve_statsNot available
get_court_speedNot available: use surface and the indoor flag only
get_injury_reportNot available: say so, and look at recent retirements in get_player_matches

How It Works

Step 1: Find the match. get_schedule {"days": 2}. Real fields: match_id, tournament, surface, indoor, round, court, starts_at, player1, player2, seed1, seed2, status. indoor can be null when unknown; do not assume.

Step 2: Pull the match record and price. get_match {"match_id": "..."}. Before play, players[].rating is null (real response for a scheduled match), so take ratings from get_player or get_ratings. odds has one row per book if the event is a Grand Slam, a Masters or a WTA 1000; otherwise it is empty.

Step 3: Ratings and form. get_player for each player: overall rating, surface rating and match count on today's surface, career record, last 10. Compute the rating change over the last 10 completed matches as the form signal (see player-scouting).

Step 4: Head to head. get_head_to_head. Weigh by sample size (see head-to-head-analysis).

Step 5: Route. get_tournament for the event: list each player's wins so far, and total games or sets dropped. A player who has played three three-setters carries more load than one who has won in straight sets. This is a signal from scores, not from physical data, so say "load proxy".

Step 6: Model probability. Elo probability from surface-elo. If the event is covered, add the no-vig close from odds-analysis. Do not force them to agree; show both.

Step 7: Write the brief.

Worked Example (structure with real fields)

Match: Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys, Shanghai Masters 2026, Round 3, hard, scheduled 2026-10-11. From get_match:

  • rating was null for both (not played yet), so ratings come from get_player
  • odds had six books. Pinnacle close: Zverev -673, Halys +537, margin 2.8%, no-vig Zverev about 84.7%
  • games_spread1 -3.5 and games_total 22.5 at Pinnacle (a two-set match line)

Brief:

Zverev (-673) vs Halys (+537), Shanghai R3, hard
Market: Zverev ~85% no-vig (Pinnacle), range across books [x]% to [y]%
Rating: Zverev [overall / hard], Halys [overall / hard]  -> model [z]%
H2H: [a]-[b] ([n] matches), last meeting [date]
Load: games and sets dropped so far this event
Games line: Zverev -3.5 games, total 22.5
Missing: serve data, injuries, court speed

Cost: 2 (schedule) + 2 (match) + 10 (two players) + 3 (head to head) = 17 credits.

Reading Tennis Matchups from Scores

SignalSourceUse
Surface fitget_surface_splits games-won share on the surface, with match countIs the surface rating real?
Big-match recordget_player_stats vs top 10 and top 50Quality of wins
Tiebreak recordtiebreaks_won, tiebreaks_lostClose-set tendency (small sample)
Deciding setsdeciding_sets_won of deciding_setsNoisy, do not lean on it
Time since last matchlast_match in search_playersRust or fatigue (days off)
FormatBest of five at men's Slams, otherwise best of threeFavorites win more in best of five

Credit Usage

Brief depthCallsCredits
Quick: match, price, ratingsget_schedule, get_match, get_ratingsabout 6
Standard+ get_player x2, get_head_to_headabout 20
Full with route and splits+ get_tournament, get_surface_splits x2about 28

Anti-patterns

What Claude Might DoWhy It's WrongDo This Instead
Invent serve numbersNot in the dataName the gap
Use rating.after from get_matchContains the resultPre-match ratings only
Declare a favorite from rank aloneRank is a points total and can lag formUse Elo plus market
Skip the tour checkWTA needs league: "wta"Pass it everywhere
Quote odds for an uncovered eventThe array is emptySay the event is outside coverage
Rely on a 2-meeting head to headToo smallDown-weight it

Output Format

[P1] vs [P2]  |  [Tournament], [Round], [Surface], [start time UTC]
Lean: [P] at [x]% (model), market [y]% (no-vig close, Pinnacle) 
Why: 1) ... 2) ... 3) ...
Risks and gaps: ...

Always include "Estimates, not guarantees" when probabilities are shown, and never present a lean as a bet recommendation.

What to Do Next

What You FoundNext ActionSkill
Model and market disagreeTest itedge-detection
Totals or set markets of interestModel themset-score-modeling
Thin surface sampleCheck the rating blendsurface-elo

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