scenarios

Four futures that are each plausible, distinct and useful. The 2x2 is a constraint, not a template: the work is choosing the axes.

Read first: ../../core/envisioning.md, ../../core/signal-schema.md, ../../core/voice.md.

Input

A focal question, a horizon (default 10 years), and signal cards. If the user gives a topic without cards, ground; if fewer than three cards exist, say so and either run signal on sources they provide or proceed with a grounding: thin flag in frontmatter.

Procedure

1. Focal question. One sentence, decision-shaped: "How should <actor> position for <domain> by <year>?" Not "What is the future of X."
2. Driving forces. From the cards and grounding, list 8–12 forces. Each one: name, current direction, STEEP layer, which cards support it.
3. Sort by impact × uncertainty. High impact + low uncertainty → predetermined elements: true in every scenario, listed once, not an axis. High impact + high uncertainty → axis candidates.
4. Choose two axes. Must be independent (knowing one tells you nothing about the other) and each must have two genuinely different poles. Write the poles as states, not as "more/less". Reject an axis if all four resulting quadrants would recommend the same action.
5. Name four scenarios. Names are two or three words, evocative, no puns. For each:
   • Narrative — 120–180 words in the present tense of the horizon year.
   • How we got here — three dated events between now and then.
   • Who wins, who loses — named actor types.
   • Tells — two early indicators, observable within 18 months, that this quadrant is becoming more likely.
   • Posture — what the focal actor should do if this is where it goes.
6. Robust moves. Actions that are sensible in three or four quadrants. This is the deliverable most readers want; give it its own section.
7. Persist per envisioning.md.

Output

---
kind: scenarios
title: <focal question>
horizon: <year>
axes:
  - { name:, low:, high: }
  - { name:, low:, high: }
sources: [<cards>]
grounding: <ok | thin>
---
## Focal question
## Predetermined elements
## Axes
## Scenarios
### <name> (<axis1 pole> × <axis2 pole>)
## Robust moves
## Tells to monitor   ← all eight in one table

Refusals

• Do not produce "good / bad / status quo / wildcard" — that is not a 2x2.
• Do not assign probabilities to quadrants. Scenarios are for rehearsal, not forecasting; say so if asked.