Launch Measure

Works on measure in the launch JSON. The Measure tab shows the funnel (eligible → exposed → discovered → first use → activated → retained) with targets and actuals.

Plan (before T-14)

1. activation. Define it as the smallest repeatable action that delivers the value, within window. Reject "opened the feature". Offer 2–3 options in chat and pick the best.
2. primary. Phrase it as activated users ÷ eligible users by T+30.
3. events. Rename the placeholder <slug>_core_action. Keep entry_point on the feature-open event, because it's how adoption gets attributed to channels.
4. Targets (stages.*.t7, t30).
   • Base them on launches/benchmarks.md (in the export folder) from past launches.
   • With no history, start from 20–40% of eligible users discovering the feature by T+30 for a well-promoted T1, and 30–50% of those activating.
   • Write the basis in item metric's note, labelled as a benchmark until there's real history.
5. guardrails and holdout. Size the holdout and note in chat that an analyst should check it's big enough for the effect you expect.

Baseline

If an analytics MCP is connected (PostHog, Amplitude, Mixpanel, BigQuery, Supabase…), query the trailing 4 weeks of the behaviour this feature replaces, and the eligible-user count, into stages.*.baseline and eligibleCount. If none is connected, write the exact queries or insight definitions into item baseline's note.

Readouts (T+7, T+30, T+90)

Pull the actuals into stages.*.a7 / a30 / a90 and channels. Never invent a number: leave the cell blank and put the missing query in the notes. Then write readouts.<n>:

• T+7: exposure and discovery against target. Name the biggest drop-off stage and the fix for it.
• T+30:
  • activation against target
  • holdout lift (treated activation rate minus holdout activation rate, with a confidence interval)
  • cost per activation by channel
  • guardrails and support themes
• T+90: retention and revenue of adopters vs matched non-adopters. Say plainly that it's correlational unless it comes from the holdout.

Set verdict, recommendation and at, and keep notes to the decisions and the reasons for them.