Reply Classification

Sorts what came back, so a genuinely interested owner never waits three days and a "maybe in a couple of years" never gets treated as a no.

Owner replies are not investor replies. They are personal, often guarded, and frequently a test: is this buyer a real person or another blast? The reply to the reply decides which one you are.

Step 0 — Input

1. Read thesis-profile.md for sender identity and compliance notes. If it does not exist, stop and walk the user through creating it from templates/thesis-profile.md.
2. Accept replies in whatever form the user has them: pasted text, an export, a forwarded thread, or a description. Ask for the raw text rather than a summary. The exact wording carries the signal.

For each reply, capture: who, which company, which channel, which touch they were on, and the full text.

Step 1 — Classify

Every reply gets exactly one class, from this list and no other:

Classification rules

1. opt-out overrides everything. If there is any opt-out language anywhere in the reply, it is an opt-out, however friendly the rest is. Suppress permanently and immediately, on every channel.
2. "Not selling" from an owner is very often "not yet." Read the wording. "Not for sale" with a timing hint is open-later. A flat, final "never, do not ask again" is not-selling. When it carries any opt-out language, it is opt-out.
3. A broker referral changes the deal, not just the contact. A broker-run process means competition and a market price. Flag it — the user decides whether that still fits the thesis.
4. An auto-reply is not a reply. Do not count it in reply rate. Reschedule the sequence past the return date.
5. When genuinely ambiguous, ask the user. Do not guess. A misread interested is the most expensive miss in the system.
6. Read the whole message. A polite opening followed by "but we would never sell" is not-selling, not interest.

Step 2 — Extract signal

Beyond the class, pull out what is actually useful, quoted verbatim:

• What they said about timing. "After I turn 65" is a calendar entry and a succession signal — write it to succession_signal in targets.csv
• What they asked for. Usually "who are you" — the buyer one-pager exists for exactly this
• Any objection to the approach itself. If three owners say "this looked like spam", that goes back to outreach-writer
• Referral target. Broker name, firm, or the family member who "handles these things"
• Anything about the business they volunteered. Owners reveal more in one annoyed reply than a week of research finds

Step 3 — Update the pipeline

Write to pipeline.csv, using reply_class and stage per the schema:

Also update targets.csv: status, succession_signal, and notes.

Stop every active sequence for anyone who replied. Continuing to send after a reply is the single most damaging thing you can do to a live conversation with an owner.

Step 4 — Draft responses

Per references/outreach-voice-rules.md and references/compliance-and-ethics.md. No implied valuations, no invented urgency, no pretending an offer exists.

interested — Short. Warm without gushing. Confirm who the buyer is in one line, propose two specific times for a short call. Do not attach anything they did not ask for. Do not start negotiating. They said yes to a conversation, nothing more.

wants-info — Answer the actual question, directly, in the reply. Send the buyer one-pager. Do not deflect a factual question to a call; owners read that as evasive.

open-later — Two lines. Thank them, confirm the timing they gave, say you will check in then. No pitching. No "before you go." Then actually follow up on that date. A well-timed note in two years closes deals no cold letter ever will.

not-selling — One or two lines. Thank them, respect the answer, leave the door open without pushing on it. Never argue, never "just one call." These markets are small and owners talk.

broker-referral — Thank them, confirm you will contact the broker, and flag internally: the user should decide whether a brokered process fits before anyone reaches out.

opt-out — No response at all. Suppress and move on. Replying to an opt-out is itself a contact.

dead — No response unless a correction is owed (wrong entity: apologize briefly, close).

🚧 HARD GATE

Show every classification and every draft. Flag anything ambiguous and ask. Get approval before writing to pipeline.csv, targets.csv, or the do-not-contact list, and before any draft is treated as ready. Nothing sends from this system; the user sends.

Step 5 — Report

Replies processed — 19

  interested        2   ← respond today
  wants-info        3
  open-later        5   ← revisit dates set, 2 with succession signals
  not-selling       4   (3 soft → dormant, 1 final)
  broker-referral   1   ← flagged, brokered process, your call
  opt-out           1   ← do-not-contact, permanent, no reply drafted
  auto-reply        2   (not counted in reply rate)
  dead              1   (company dissolved 2024, registry checked)

Real reply rate:   17 of 71 sent  (24%)
Live or future:    10 of 71       (14%)  interested + wants-info + open-later

Worth noting:
  "Looked like a mass mailing"     2  ← back to outreach-writer
  Succession signals captured      2  → written to targets.csv

Sequences stopped: 17
Drafts ready for your review. Nothing sent.

Notes

• Respond to interested within hours, not days. An owner who raised their hand is deciding whether you are serious. Speed is the answer.
• open-later is the crop. Most proprietary deals close one to three years after first contact. The revisit date is the asset; guard it.
• Never argue with a no. The owner who says no this year refers you to their neighbor next year, unless you pushed.
• If the same complaint about the approach appears three times, it is a copy or targeting problem. Send it back to outreach-writer with the quotes.
• Opt-outs are forever. Not per-campaign, not per-year. Forever, on every channel. See references/compliance-and-ethics.md.