Structured Analysis Skill

Apply CIA/IC Structured Analytic Techniques to produce defensible, evidence-based analytical assessments. Every claim must be cited. Every judgment must trace to technique outputs.

Invocation

/analyze                          → Adaptive mode (auto-select techniques)
/analyze <technique>              → Direct mode (run one technique)
/analyze --guided                 → Guided mode (walk through all phases)
/analyze --resume <analysis-id>   → Resume or update existing analysis
/analyze --iterate <analysis-id>                → Re-run full analysis with new evidence
/analyze --iterate <analysis-id> <technique>    → Re-run specific technique(s)
/analyze --lean                   → Lean mode (abbreviated technique set)
/analyze --comprehensive          → Comprehensive mode (full rubric, adversarial + deception checks)
/analyze --no-osint               → Disable web research

Techniques: customer-checklist, issue-redefinition, restatement, brainstorm, kac, ach, inconsistencies, cross-impact, what-if, premortem, counterfactual, narratives, bowtie, opportunities, devils-advocacy, red-hat, alt-futures, deception

Flags combine: /analyze --guided --no-osint is valid.

Q Investigation System Integration

This skill is integrated into the Investigators Copilot investigation system.

Output Path Override

All analysis output goes inside the active case folder, not the project root.

When an active case exists (e.g., investigations/case-001-example/), replace every reference to analyses/{{ANALYSIS_ID}}/ with:

investigations/<active-case>/output/analyses/{{ANALYSIS_ID}}/

If no active case is identified, ask the founder which case this analysis belongs to.

Evidence Integration -- Tier 2 Local Files

When collecting Tier 2 (local file) evidence, always include the active case's collected intelligence. In addition to generic Glob discovery, explicitly search these directories:

• investigations/<active-case>/investigation/targets/ -- target profiles with collection status and gaps
• investigations/<active-case>/investigation/findings/ -- confirmed/assessed findings with confidence levels
• investigations/<active-case>/investigation/evidence/ -- raw evidence and screenshots
• investigations/<active-case>/investigation/timelines/ -- chronological event data
• investigations/<active-case>/canonical/scope.md -- hypotheses and collection requirements

This is the richest local evidence available. Prioritize it over generic file discovery.

Feeding Results Back to Q

After any /analyze run completes, update the active case:

1. Add key findings to investigation/findings/ (with citation back to the analysis)
2. Update memory/investigation-state.md with analysis summary and which techniques were run
3. If the analysis surfaced new collection gaps, flag them in investigation-state.md and suggest /q-scope to the founder (file authority: canonical/ is only updated via /q-scope)

OSINT Note

This system uses Apify/Exa/Jina for OSINT collection (not Firecrawl). When the skill needs web research, it should use the built-in WebSearch and WebFetch tools. For deeper collection, use /q-osint or /q-collect first, then run /analyze --no-osint on the collected evidence.

Execution

You MUST read the orchestrator protocol before proceeding. It contains mode routing, technique selection logic, and the technique routing table.

Step 0 — Context Inference

Before parsing explicit arguments, scan the conversation history for implicit inputs. Users often invoke /analyze mid-conversation after discussing a problem, providing data, or sharing links.

Extract from conversation context:

• Problem statement: What is the user trying to analyze? Look for questions, concerns, scenarios, or decisions under discussion.
• Implicit technique hints: Did the user mention assumptions, hypotheses, competing explanations, risks, or scenarios? Map these to techniques (e.g., "I'm not sure which explanation is right" → ACH, "what could go wrong" → Premortem).
• Implicit flags: Did the user indicate they want something quick (→ --lean), don't want web research (→ --no-osint), or want to walk through everything (→ --guided)?
• Prior analysis: Are there existing analyses in the active case's output/analyses/ for the same topic? (→ suggest --resume or --iterate)
• Evidence already provided: Files shared, URLs pasted, data discussed — these become Tier 1/2 evidence.

Step 0.1 — Validate Assumptions

If context inference produced any results, present them to the user for confirmation before proceeding:

Based on our conversation, here's what I'm picking up:

**Problem**: [inferred problem statement]
**Mode**: [inferred mode + rationale]
**Techniques**: [inferred techniques, if any]
**Flags**: [inferred flags, if any]
**Prior context**: [files, data, or evidence already in conversation]

Does this look right? Adjust anything before I proceed.

If the user provided explicit arguments, those always take precedence — but still surface any useful context (e.g., "You asked for ACH. I also noticed you shared [file] earlier — I'll include that as evidence.").

If no conversation context exists and no arguments were provided, proceed directly to Adaptive mode (the orchestrator will prompt for a problem statement).

Steps 1–6 — Main Execution

1. Read protocols/orchestrator.md (relative to this skill's directory)
2. Parse explicit arguments → determine mode and flags (merge with Step 0 inferences, explicit args win)
3. Follow the orchestrator's instructions for the detected mode
4. For technique execution, follow the orchestrator's Technique Execution Contract:
   • 1 technique (Direct mode): Execute in-context — read protocol, read template, execute SETUP → PRIME → EXECUTE → ARTIFACT → FINDINGS → HANDOFF, write artifact to {{ANALYSIS_DIR}}/working/
   • 2+ techniques: Dispatch to background subagents in dependency-aware tiers — each subagent reads protocol/template, executes the technique, writes the artifact, and returns only a compact findings summary. Main context accumulates summaries and file paths, not full technique work.
5. For evidence gathering: read and execute protocols/evidence-collector.md
6. For report synthesis: dispatch per protocols/report-generator.md Phase A/B architecture

Self-Correction (3 Layers)

• Layer 1 (after each technique, silent): Protocol compliance check — all steps completed? All template sections filled? No unfilled {{PLACEHOLDER}} tokens?
• Layer 2 (before report, silent): Analytical self-critique — 8 checks:
  • 3a. Assumption audit
  • 3b. Evidence balance
  • 3c. Confidence calibration
  • 3d. Alternative check
  • 3e. Missing voices
  • 3f. Internal consistency audit (cross-artifact validation)
  • 3g. Analytical bias scan (sycophancy, anchoring, vividness, completion, authority)
  • 3h. Quality score (quantitative 1-5 with pass/fail threshold)
• Layer 3 (before finalization): Human review gate — present summary (including quality score), incorporate feedback
• Auto-Remediation Gate (between Phase A and Phase B): HIGH-severity Layer 2 flags (evidence imbalance >2:1, unstated critical premises, strong counter-arguments, sycophancy/anchoring bias, quality score < 3.0) trigger automatic remediation — the orchestrator invokes the iteration handler to collect targeted evidence, re-run flagged techniques (max 3), and regenerate the report before the user sees it. Capped at 1 cycle. Zero overhead when no HIGH flags exist.
• Critique-to-Iteration Bridge (after results): Remaining MEDIUM/LOW flags from Layer 1 and Layer 2 are mapped to specific technique re-runs and evidence collection focuses, presented as ready-to-run /analyze --iterate commands. Only fires when actionable flags exist beyond what auto-remediation already addressed. All flags and their statuses are written to next-steps.md in the analysis root — a standalone ledger tracking OPEN, REMEDIATED, RESOLVED, and DEFERRED items across iterations. The --iterate handler reads this file as its primary input.

Citation Requirement

Every claim in every artifact must be cited. No exceptions. Citation methods:

• OSINT: [Source](URL) — Retrieved: YYYY-MM-DD
• FILE: [filename:line_range]
• USER: [User-provided, session context]
• ANALYSIS: [Derived via technique_name]
• PRIOR-ITERATION: [PRIOR-v{N}: technique_name]

OSINT is never presented as fact — always "according to [source]".

Reference Library

For deep background on any technique, read library/00-prime.md (relative to this skill's directory) and the specific library files referenced in each protocol. The library contains the full theoretical foundation, axioms, selection matrices, and empirical critiques underlying this skill.