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OctagonAIOctagonAI/octagon-mcp-server/skills/prediction-markets-analysis/SKILL.md

prediction-markets-analysis

Skill147 starsChanged 6 months agoMITView on GitHub

Generate Kalshi prediction market research reports or fetch structured event history. Use when the user mentions Kalshi, prediction markets, market probability, expected return, or event history.

1 other project uses a version of this.

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  • Other versions1 project uses a version of this.

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    1. OctagonAI/skills★ 127same name

    How matches are found. Word for word: the exact same text. Edited: shares passages with this file (“99% same” means 99% of its five-word phrases also appear here; 10% or more counts). Their own version: similar meaning, or, weakest, the same name. We can’t tell which project had it first. Projects are counted among the 200 most-starred candidates, and mentions are links to the repository we found, up to 50 per site, so both counts are a floor.

  • In this repository6 other files it gives its agents.

The file

We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

4 rules. About 0 are common, 1 is distinctive, and 3 are very specific to this project.

  • ≈0

    Common · estimate

    Many files like this have a rule of this kind.

  • ≈1

    Distinctive · estimate

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 3

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Distinctive:

    Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

    line 8
  2. Very specific:

    Use octagon-prediction-markets-agent for analyst-style reports

    line 58
  3. Very specific:

    Use prediction_markets_history for structured history, pagination, or time filtering

    line 59
  4. Very specific:

    If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set cache to false

    line 60

≈ “Common” is an estimate: at least 1 in 5 of the 350,495 skill files we read have a rule of the same kind, not the same words. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Prediction Markets Analysis

Use this skill for Kalshi event research and historical prediction market analysis.

When to use

  • The user shares a Kalshi market URL
  • The user wants a structured report on one prediction market event
  • The user wants event history across snapshots or runs

Query format

Generate a report for the Kalshi market <KALSHI_URL>.

For structured history retrieval:

Fetch historical data for the Kalshi event ticker <EVENT_TICKER>.

MCP calls

Report generation:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-prediction-markets-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Generate a report for the Kalshi market https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100"
  }
}

Structured history:

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "prediction_markets_history",
  "arguments": {
    "event_ticker": "KXBTCY-27JAN0100",
    "limit": 50,
    "include_analysis": true
  }
}

Tool selection rules

  • Use octagon-prediction-markets-agent for analyst-style reports
  • Use prediction_markets_history for structured history, pagination, or time filtering
  • If the user wants guaranteed fresh data, set cache to false

Output expectations

  • Compare model probability to market probability
  • Highlight edge, expected return, and risk factors
  • Surface missing Kalshi URL immediately when absent

Follow-up prompts

  • "Refresh the report instead of using cache."
  • "Show the event history with analysis included."
  • "Summarize the largest drivers of divergence between model and market."

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