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Bhala-SrinivashBhala-Srinivash/nse-trading-skills/position-sizing/SKILL.md

position-sizing

Skill36 starsChanged 8 months agoMITView on GitHub

Calculate optimal position sizes for NSE/BSE equity trades using fixed fractional, ATR-based, and Kelly criterion methods. Includes portfolio constraints and leverage adjustments.

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We split this skill into the rules it gives an agent

3 rules. 0 are common, 2 are distinctive, and 1 is very specific to this project.

  • 0

    Common

    Most of the 7 edited versions we read keep these.

  • 2

    Distinctive

    This author's own choices. Worth a look.

  • 1

    Very specific

    Tied to their project's names, files or tools. Probably skip.

  • Common
  • Distinctive
  • Very specific
  1. Very specific:

    No dependencies required. Works with manually provided prices.

    line 18
  2. Distinctive:

    If a position would breach a constraint, reduce size until it fits.

    line 102
  3. Distinctive:

    When using margin/leverage, the math changes because losses are amplified:

    line 106

“Common” is measured: kept by at least 6 in 10 of the 7 edited versions of this file we could read. “Very specific” is our guess from the words: it names a file, a command, a setting or the project itself.

Keep what fits and drop the rest. Your version, ready for your agents.
Files
SKILL.md

Position Sizing

Position sizing is how you survive. The goal: risk a small, consistent percentage of capital per trade so that no single loss can cripple your account.

Prerequisites

No dependencies required. Works with manually provided prices. Enhanced with Groww MCP (live price, ATR, portfolio) or yfinance (pip install yfinance).

Data Needed

  1. Account size: Total trading capital (ask user if not known)
  2. Current price: get_quotes_and_depth from Groww, or user-provided
  3. ATR(14): get_historical_technical_indicators from Groww, or calculate from candle data
  4. Existing positions: get_equity_portfolio_holdings to check concentration (optional)

Method 1: Fixed Fractional (Default)

This is the go-to method. Simple, robust, works for everyone.

Risk per trade = Account size × Risk%
Shares = Risk per trade ÷ (Entry price - Stop-loss price)
Capital required = Shares × Entry price

Risk% guidelines:

SituationRisk%
Normal (no leverage)1-2%
With 2x leverage0.5-1%
With 3-4x leverage0.25-0.5%
High conviction tradeUp to 3% (rare)
New/uncertain setup0.5%

Example

Account: Rs.10,00,000
Risk: 2% = Rs.20,000
Entry: Rs.1,800
Stop: Rs.1,700 (Rs.100 risk per share)
Shares: 20,000 ÷ 100 = 200 shares
Capital: 200 × 1,800 = Rs.3,60,000 (36% of account)

Method 2: ATR-Based Sizing

Uses volatility to set the stop distance, then sizes accordingly.

Stop distance = ATR(14) × multiplier
Shares = Risk amount ÷ Stop distance
Market ConditionATR Multiplier
Low volatility (ADX < 20)1.5× ATR
Normal volatility2.0× ATR
High volatility (ADX > 30)2.5× ATR

This naturally sizes you smaller in volatile stocks and larger in calm ones.

Method 3: Kelly Criterion (Advanced)

For traders with a track record of at least 30 trades:

Kelly% = W - (1 - W) / R
W = historical win rate
R = average win / average loss

Use Half-Kelly (Kelly% ÷ 2) for real trading — full Kelly is too aggressive.
Win RateAvg W/L RatioKelly%Half-Kelly
40%2.010%5%
50%1.517%8%
60%1.227%13%

Portfolio Constraints

These are hard limits — never exceed them regardless of sizing method:

ConstraintLimit
Single stockMax 20% of portfolio
Single sectorMax 35% of portfolio
Total open riskMax 6% of portfolio (sum of all position risks)
Correlated positionsMax 3 stocks in same sector simultaneously

If a position would breach a constraint, reduce size until it fits.

Leverage Adjustment

When using margin/leverage, the math changes because losses are amplified:

Effective risk% = Risk% × Leverage
So: reduce your base risk% by dividing by leverage

At 3.74x leverage:
  Normal risk: 2%
  Adjusted risk: 2% ÷ 3.74 ≈ 0.5%
  This keeps your effective risk at ~2%

Output

Present position sizing as:

Position Size: XXX shares
Capital Required: Rs.X,XX,XXX
Risk Amount: Rs.X,XXX (X.X% of account)
Stop-Loss: Rs.XXX (X.X% below entry)
Portfolio Allocation: XX% of total capital

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